Análisis exploratorio de datos espaciales de contagios de sars-cov-2 (covid-19), en la provincia de chimborazo período 2020-2021, a través del cálculo, modelación y comparación de variogramas

Abstract

In Ecuador, COVID 19 infection records were issued only through epidemiological bulletins there were no spatial statistical analyses, so the objective of this research was to determine the spatial pattern of morbidity of the total number of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) cases in the province of Chimborazo for the period 2020-2021 by means of an exploratory spatial analysis, structural analysis and variogram modeling, the methodology applied had a quantitative approach, a non-experimental design was used with a total population of 16114 infected people, the information was obtained from the official account of the Ministry of Public Health, then a spatial statistical analysis was performed where the canton with the highest number of infections is Riobamba with 67.4 % and the cantons that have a minimum number of infections are Pallatanga, and Penipe which do not exceed 2 %, compared to the structural analysis determined that there is spatial autocorrelation due to the formation of clusters, depending on the geographic location, the zones are associated with high and low values respectively, classified in two groups, Riobamba, Colta, Guamote, Chambo, Guano, are the areas most prone to be affected, while Pallatanga, Cumandá, Chunchi, and Alausí are the areas least prone to be affected. Consequently, a variogram modeling was performed where 99 % of the models have the same behavior with an RMSE of 3.056 and R 2 0.229, an adequate adjustment was assessed in the graphical representation, considering a good cutoff at the threshold where the range reaches the variance with a downward regionalized trend, evidenced in the spherical model, therefore it is concluded that the spatial distribution morbidity pattern is grouped since the contagion events tend to concentrate in certain areas presenting high relationships of geographical proximity in the different cantons of the province of Chimborazo.