Modelo econométrico para la producción y el pronóstico en la Empresa de Hilandería de la parroquia Salinas del cantón Guaranda de la provincia de Bolívar

Abstract

An econometric model has been elaborated for the forecast of yarn production in the Intercomunal Salinas Spinning Mill belonging to the Guaranda Canton in the Province of Bolivar, taking into account the need of statistical studies for the good operation of the company and decision making, since similar studies have not been carried out since its creation in the industry. The analysis was carried out in Excel spreadsheet and Minitab statistical software by collecting data from the company's files, then the application of techniques such as descriptive statistics calculation, data transformation, correlation and linear regression was carried out; obtaining results that allow measuring the current situation of the company. A forecasting model was identified by the Winters method, since the data series of yarn production shows a moderate trend and seasonality with variations, and a structural analysis of the variables that involve the production of yarn was made through a multiple regression model. In conclusion, during the last 4 years the yarn production has been of pounds per month, which represents 52% of the supposed production of 12,000 pounds, likewise the losses of raw material (llama and sheep wool) are 20 quintals. For better production and improvement of the company, quality control studies are recommended, as well as greater control of the different production processes to avoid losses of raw material.