Análisis estadístico de las posibles zonas vulnerables de los delitos registrados en la ciudad de Riobamba, periodo 2015-2017.

Abstract

The objective of this research was to statistically analyze the factors, profiles and vulnerable zones of the crimes registered in the City of Riobamba, period 2015-2017. Variables that were registered in the System David 2012 that the Ministry of the Interior developed, were studied, which represent the characteristics of the victims who suffered from the crime burglary, in the urban area of the city. In this study, the following techniques were applied: Geographic Information System (GIS), Logistic Regression (RL), and Bietapic Conglomerate Analysis, by using the R statistical software version 3.4.2, SPSS version 21 and the Excel 2013 spreadsheet. Through the univariate descriptive statistical analysis, it was determined that burglary victims most vulnerable people, are males 65.95%, single people 62.6 %, students 70.15%, assaulted people 73%, walking people 83.08%, and people on public roads 69%. Regarding the identification of the zones, it was obtained that zone 6 with the Polytechnic Circuit 20% is the most vulnerable. Regarding the RL, it was established that there is a 79.7% probability that the people who suffered of burglary are students, considering that the burglary occurs when they are on foot, on public roads, they are 30 years old or younger, and they are single. As for the profile information, the first profile (43.6%) groups the victims with the following characteristics: the assault modality was 64%, married 49.6, with a bladed weapon 100%, students 42.9% and an average age of 25 years. The second profile (33%) is characterized by the following features: an average age of 22 years, single people 99.7%, students 100%, assault modality 98.1%, and with a bladed weapon 100%.