Pronósticos del consumo y demanda de potencia máxima de energía eléctrica en la ciudad de Riobamba para el periodo 2017-2020, mediante modelos ARIMA.

Abstract

The objective was to predict the consumption and the maximum power demand of electrical energy in Riobamba city in the period 2017-2020, using ARIMA models. It was carried out with real information taken from the Planning Department of the Empresa Eléctrica Riobamba S.A. (EERSA). Through the application of knowledge in Geo-statistics, it was possible to carry out the sectorisation of electrical energy consumption in Riobamba city, resulting in the years that consumed the most energy were 2015, 2017. The high consumption is mainly shown in the commercial area of the city, approaching the historical centre of the city. Through the study of time series, the best prediction models were determined, where the following models are applied: ARIMA (0,1,1)(1,0,0)[12] for the electrical energy consumption in Riobamba city, while the demand for maximum power of electrical energy was established by means of precision measurements. The model that best fits the generation of prediction in the Holt-Winters method, the validated models that apply by the verification of the assumptions of the prediction models, corroborating the residuals, normality, stationarity and independence. It is recommended to EERSA implements and uses the prediction models proposed in this paper to predict the consumption and demand of maximum power of electrical energy in Riobamba city.