Estimación de la variación de la precipitación hídrica de la provincia de Chimborazo usando modelos Montecarlo

Abstract

This work was carried out to determine how water precipitation varies in the different stations that exist in the province of Chimborazo. For this purpose, a Bootstrap Monte Carlo model was used to fit the requirements of the recorded data, which was run in R software. The data were obtained from the web, from the meteorological stations of the Alternative Energies and Environment Group (GEAA), once the precipitation data were downloaded, by means of the simulation obtained the averages of the data that adjust to the measured data, according to the standard and absolute errors calculated, simulated average data are obtained with a minimum of 0 in all the simulations and a maximum of 1, 0825181 per day and 0.34856963 per hour in Atillo, a maximum of 0.65045833 per day and 0.50245871 per hour in San Juan, a maximum of 1.20470958 per day and 0.46843767 per hour in Tixan, a maximum of 1.31533875 per day and 0.47815414 per hour in Tunshi and finally a maximum of 1.10588542 per day and 0.76870258 per hour in ESPOCH. The rainfall varies depending on the station and location because some stations are close to the coast and others to the east of Ecuador. Then it was observed that the measured data tend to coincide according to the simulated data obtained, which allows estimating approximate values of rainfall measured at the weather stations located in the province of Chimborazo with a good fit, which would allow forecasting the variation of rainfall using the proposed model and extend these results to other parts of the province.