Aplicación de modelos de predicción de insolvencia empresarial a la empresa productos Guadalupe Proguadalupe Cía. Ltda., de la parroquia Checa, cantón Quito

Abstract

This project aims to apply business insolvency prediction models to Productos Guadalupe Proguadalupe Cía. Ltd., of Checa, a region belonging to Quito canton. The company began its activities on May 14, 2006, with the corporate purpose of engaging in the growing, planting, sowing, harvesting, marketing, and distribution of agricultural products nationwide. Since there are no predictive models within the company that determine if the organization will have bankruptcy problems in the short or medium term, the prediction models; Altman's Z, Springate, Fulmer and CA-Score, were helpful to identify if the company had insolvency problems. For this reason, qualitative and quantitative research approaches were used, with an applied and field study. The primary research sources were surveys and interviews, and secondary sources were books, scientific articles, websites. Surveys conducted to 36 employees and 17 suppliers of the entity were necessary to get information about the company and the interview with the manager and accounting assistant to understand its situation and counteract what the respondents said. Subsequently, the four models most used were applied and with a reliability degree more significant than 80%, obtaining the following results: with Altman's Z 1.89; Springate: 0.25; Fulmer: -3.66; AC-Score: -1.67. In conclusion, applying these models yielded low results, which means that the company has insolvency problems; that is, it does not have enough liquidity to meet its various obligations in the short term.