Pronósticos en los consumos de agua potable según registros históricos generados en la parroquia Cebadas durante el periodo 2017-2021

Abstract

The objective of this research work was to forecast the consumption of drinking water according to the historical records generated in the Cebadas parish during the period 2017-2021. For the study, a descriptive statistical analysis and forecast models were used, real information was collected where variables such as gender, consumption readings in cubic meters and the cost of water were employed, in order to know the habitual consumption of each home and provide information on misuse of water as recommended by the World Health Organization. As results it was obtained that, in the month of January 2017 there was a low consumption with 536.89m3 of water and in the month of December 2021 it reached its highest peak in consumption with 595.60m3 of drinking water, which was analyzed with the forecast model ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,1) [12]. To evaluate the cost, precision measures and the Holt-Winters model were used, which were validated by the Ljung-Box test, it was determined that, in the next two years, the consumption and cost of drinking water will increase with a significance level of 0.05. It was concluded that the best model to predict drinking water consumption in the Cebadas parish was ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,1) [12] with parameters ma = -0.9593 and sar = 0.9981 and to forecast the cost of drinking water, the appropriate model was Holt-Winters, with parameters α = 613.97 and β = 1424, where it was determined that both consumption and cost will gradually increase in the coming years. It is recommended to the drinking water management board of the Cebadas parish, to carry out more water collection since it will increase the consumption of this vital liquid.