Análisis de los modelos predictivos para el desarrollo empresarial mediante la planificación y control de producción de la avícola Trujimar en el Cantón Guano

Abstract

This research aims to analyze predictive business models for Avícola Trujimar, a poultry company located in Guano, Chimborazo, Ecuador. The study seeks to address the challenge of matching Chimborazo's egg production with other provinces in the country's central region, highlighting the economic and social importance of the poultry industry. A combined quantitative and qualitative methodology was employed to conduct an exhaustive analysis of Avícola Trujimar's production system. This analysis identified key areas for improvement and optimization, revealing the company's economic stability while also highlighting internal weaknesses such as the lack of a defined organizational structure and empirical production management. Mathematical forecasting models were developed to understand annual demand, emphasizing egg production as a fundamental aspect and other business lines with fluctuating demand and costs. The Weighted Moving Average method proved effective for forecasting, with the caveat that results may vary depending on the number of data points. Strategies were identified to efficiently manage inventories and optimize production through ABC analysis and the implementation of a quarterly Aggregate Production Plan. Careful planning of purchases and production level control based on projected demand contributes to operational efficiency and market competitiveness. The study provides a solid foundation for developing future strategies and making informed decisions to strengthen Avícola Trujimar's position in the Ecuadorian poultry market and contribute to the economic and social development of Chimborazo