Análisis financiero de la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito 9 de Octubre Ltda., y aplicación de modelos de predicción de quiebra, Altman Z- Score, Fulmer Y Springate, año 2023

Abstract

Savings and credit cooperatives are an essential part of the Ecuadorian financial system as they contribute to the revitalization of the country's economy and help the most vulnerable groups that are excluded from the system. Although the COACs have matrices and tools provided by the Superintendency of Popular and Solidarity Economy where a series of indicators must be met, one of the risks that most threatens these institutions is the risk of bankruptcy that can be a product of the incidence of internal and external factors. For this reason, the purpose of this study was to carry out a financial analysis of the Savings and Credit Cooperative “9 de Octubre Ltda.”, and application of bankruptcy prediction models, Altman Z-Score, Fulmer and Springate, year 2023 The methodology implemented had a qualitative approach, where six surveys were carried out on the Cooperative's staff to collect information, and a quantitative approach in which both horizontal and vertical financial analysis, a calculation of financial ratios and finally an application of predictive models from the authors mentioned previously. The fusion of both approaches allowed the development of a situational analysis where tools such as SWOT, PESTEL and PORTER were applied to demonstrate the reality of the Cooperative. Furthermore, it was determined that Fulmer and Springate agreed on the result in which the institution is apparently bankrupt, although the result is not decisive, it is a warning to develop a more in-depth analysis. Thus, a matrix of strategies was proposed that has several key activities that the institution could implement to mitigate the level of bankruptcy risk, allowing it to remain competitive in the market.