Estimación y modelación Geoestadística de la radiación solar en la provincia de Chimborazo en el año 2012.

Abstract

The National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is no recording global solar radiation data, therefore this research is based on estimation and geostatistical modeling of solar radiation in the province of Chimborazo in 2012. With the support of Group of Alternative Energy and Environment of ESPOCH. This research was carried out by using statistical methods like univariate and multivariate in order to detect outliers inside the sample, by means of simple and multiple linear regression analysis to obtain estimated coefficients for solar radiation model and finally ordinary kriging geostatistical method was used for spatial modeling of global solar radiation. It was determined that the best regression model for estimating global solar radiation in Riobamba city is the Angtrom-Prescott model based on heliophany which explains approximately 80% of total variability from global solar radiation, and the best geostatistical model is lineal ordinary kriging which explains approximately 68% of spatial variability from radiation. It was concluded that it can estimate the global solar radiation with the Angstrom-Prescott model and an ordinary linear kriging model for the geostatistical modeling, however it is recommended that the area where the Prescott model is applied, should have topographical characteristics like Riobamba city.